一 | 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、金银大跌，有底吗？ 2、美股可能面对更大压力； 3、国内2月哪些赛道更靠近暖风 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、金银大跌，有底吗？ 过去的两三天发生了接二连三的重磅级消息，导致大类资产大涨大跌。
二 | Washington, Oct 14 (UNI) The global economy is "dangerously close" to a recession, as inflation remains elevated, interest rates rise, and growing debt burden hits the developing world, World Bank President David Malpass said.
"We've lowered our 2023 growth forecast from 3 per cent to 1.9 per cent for the global growth, that's dangerously close to a world recession," Malpass on Thursday said at a press conference during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.
"All of the problems that people have taken note of, the inflation problem, the interest rate rises, and the cutoff of capital flow to developing world hit the poor hard," he said, highlighting the buildup of debt for developing countries.
"That's a world recessions could happen under certain circumstances," Malpass said.
In a study published in mid-September, the World Bank warned that as central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023, with a growth forecast of only 0.5 per cent.
The World Bank chief noted at the press conference that world population growth is estimated at 1.1 per cent per year. "So if you get much slower in terms of world growth, that means people are going backward," Malpass said in response to a question from Xinhua.
Citing a recent World Bank report, Malpass said that Covid-19 pandemic dealt the biggest setback to global poverty-reduction efforts since 1990, pushing about 70 million people into extreme poverty in 2020, and the war in Ukraine threatens to make matters worse.
According to the Poverty and Shared Prosperity Report, global median income declined by 4 per cent in 2020, the first decline since its measurements of median income began in 1990.
"So if we have a world recession now, that would also depress median income, meaning that the people in the lower half of the income scale are going down," Malpass said.
The World Bank chief also noted that he has been concerned about the concentration of capital in the world in the top end of the advanced economies.
"So that's, I think, one of the issues that the world has to deal with to allow capital to flow to new businesses and to developing countries, that would take a change in the direction of fiscal and monetary policies in the advanced economies," said Malpass.
The world is facing very challenging environment from the advanced economies, and that has serious implications, dangers for the developing countries, he said. "My deep concern is that these conditions and trends might persist into 2023 and 2024."
UNI/XINHUA PRT。这对下周国内的市场会产生什么影响？我们一起来跟进一下。
最重磅的消息是：美联储下一任主席的人选确定了——特朗普选择了主张“降息缩表”的沃什。这一决定直接触发了金融市场的恐慌性连锁反应。
首先是贵金属出现大跌：黄金一天跌了8%，盘中最大跌幅达到12%；白银则下跌了26%，盘中最大跌幅直接砍掉了35%。这真的是史诗级的一天。
三 | 更有意思的是，我们在股票市场中并没有看到通常的“跷跷板效应”——贵金属大跌的同时，美国的股票市场也在下跌。纳斯达克指数下跌了1%，并顺带着引发加密货币大幅下挫，比特币向下跌破了8万美元，这是近期罕见的跌势。 这种金融市场的剧烈动荡，有没有可能传染给其他资产，甚至波及国内市场、影响中国资产？我们需要先分析大跌背后的原因，再进行推导。沃什这个人，是此前美联储主席三位候选人中相对偏鹰派的一位。他的最终胜出，会让市场感受到：未来一段时间，美国金融市场的资金充沛程度可能不像大家此前想象的那么高，反而将面临一定程度的流动性略微收紧。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入“妙投888”即可领取。
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Published on:02:52:56
