龙之战

专访林园：不会因净值大幅波动而焦虑科技行业机会和科技股机会是两回事_我的网站

A | 　　毕业于汉中市卫生学校西医专业，深圳大学电子技术与计算机专业，曾就职于深圳红会医院。自1989年进入证券市场，至今已拥有逾30年投资经验。　　个人或所在机构曾获2024东方财富风云际会“年度品牌价值私募基金公司”、2023东方财富风云际会“年度卓越价值私募基金公司”、私募排排网2020年常青树私募基金经理等业内奖项。　　熬过极端分化行情涨跌轮回本是股市规律　　第一财经：最近，我们看到以林园投资为代表的一众“老风格”基金，迎来净值的大幅修复。

A logo of Moore Threads at the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai on July 28, 2025 Photo: VCG
Chinese chipmaker Moore Threads, often described as "China's Nvidia" or "Nvidia alternative," reported fast revenue growth in the first half of 2026, which exceeded its entire 2025 full-year figure. The growth accompanied other domestic graphics processing unit (GPU) companies' gains, marking a clear shift toward profitability.
Moore Threads, China's GPU leader, reported 1.736 billion yuan ($257 million) in first-half revenue, up 147.42 percent year-on-year. Gross profit reached 989 million yuan, up 103.78 percent, while net losses attributable to shareholders narrowed sharply by 95.73 percent, according to the financial results released on Sunday.
The company attributed the strong growth to booming artificial intelligence (AI) demand for full-function GPUs and the accelerated commercialization of its Kuae intelligent computing clusters.
Moore Threads maintained heavy research and development (R&D) spending of 769 million yuan in the first half, up 38.16 percent year-on-year, bringing cumulative investment since 2022 close to 5.9 billion yuan. As of the end of June, it filed 2,167 patent applications and held 788 authorized patents, which ranked among the top ranks of domestic GPU enterprises, the company said.
As a result of its investment in R&D, Moore Threads' flagship MTT S5000 GPUs have realized large-scale sales, with deployments in Beijing, Wuxi, Hangzhou and other cities. The first batch of intelligent computing clusters passed national security and reliability evaluations and achieved multiple "domestic chip training domestic models" breakthroughs. Its MUSA software stack now supports more than 800,000 developers.
Moore Threads also announced plans for an IPO in the Hong Kong market. It was listed on Shanghai's STAR Market on December 5, 2025.
"Chinese firms are increasingly turning to domestic suppliers, accelerating demand for local AI accelerators. Under the combined forces of surging inference computing needs and continued capital expenditure by major cloud providers, the domestic GPU and AI chip sectors are moving from an investment phase into a commercialization and profit-delivery phase," Yang Delong, chief economist at Shenzhen-based First Seafront Fund, told the Global Times on Sunday.
Biren, Moore Threads, MetaX and Enflame Technology are dubbed China's "four little dragons" in the GPU sector. Apart from Moore Threads, the other companies also showed rapid growth in their recent financial results.
In June, MetaX reported first-quarter revenue of 562 million yuan, up 75.37 percent year-on-year, and said that it had begun volume sales of its next-generation general-purpose GPU C600, representing further breakthroughs in the areas of domestic adaptation and supply chain autonomy control.
Enflame Technology reported 1,474.85 percent year-on-year growth in its revenue in the first quarter. The company estimated that its first-half revenue would grow 258.68-289.13 percent, likely to reach the level of the entire year of 2025.
Domestic GPU company Biren in March released its first financial results after being listed in Hong Kong. It reported 207.2 percent full-year growth in revenue in 2025, with gross profit up 210.8 percent.
Fellow AI chip leader Cambricon also delivered equally robust results on Friday. Its first-half revenue hit 5.996 billion yuan, up 108.13 percent year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose 122.61 percent to 2.311 billion yuan.
Growth was driven by deeper partnerships with leading financial and internet firms and scaled commercial deployments. Cambricon said that it completed adaptation support for major Chinese open-source AI models including GLM, DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi and MiniMax, strengthening its domestic AI computing ecosystem.
Ma Jihua, a veteran industry insider, told the Global Times that multiple Chinese companies are advancing along different technological routes covering high-, mid- and low-end products.
"With rapidly expanding capacity, they are better meeting domestic needs and beginning to reach global markets, thereby promoting more accessible AI," said Ma.
"The AI technology sector's high prosperity is expected to persist, remaining a core investment theme with substantial medium- and long-term opportunities," said Yang.
。回想上半年科技极端分化行情带来的压力和质疑，行情走到现在，您有“松口气”的感觉吗？　　林园：没有，我完全没有这种感觉。我的感受，和普通投资者、和市场整体的感受完全不一样。我也没觉得市场有多大问题，也不觉得大家过度紧张、没必要焦虑。这都是多年做投资养成的习惯。这种市场走势以前反复出现过，每隔几年就会来一次。我们心里很清楚，这就是股市的规律，很简单：涨多了就会跌，跌多了自然就会涨。

B | 　　站在几十年长周期视角当前尤其是消费板块估值处于低位　　第一财经：您曾称当下是“几十年难遇的低估区间”，所以您如何定性7月以来这轮非科技股的修复？究竟是超跌反弹，还是趋势拐点？　　林园：拉长几十年时间来看，现在的估值确实是非常便宜的。这个估值不是单看股价，还要看投资回报率、股息率这些指标。结合现在的经济环境综合去看，才得出的这个判断。

C | 　　第一财经：您所说的股价几十年低位，单单是指非科技股？还是涵盖了整个大盘指数、各类宽基指数？　　林园：我主要说的是我们布局的标的，就是大家口中的传统行业、消费类上市公司。　　科技行业前景广阔但个股高淘汰率是行业固有属性　　第一财经：您在7月的直播中提到，科技股存在“100%风险”，超出了自身能力圈。那您如何看待本轮科技股反弹？毕竟不少科技龙头个股的业绩表现还是很能打的。　　林园：我说科技股有100%风险，不只是现在，长期来看，科技股几乎一直都是百分百的风险属性。科技行业看着热闹，但真正能长期站稳脚跟、最终走出来的公司少得可怜，基本可以忽略不计。　　第一财经：那在科技赛道中，您认为有哪些机会值得关注，又有哪些陷阱需要规避？　　林园：科技赛道的机会肯定很大，这是明摆着的。AI、机器人这些都是颠覆性的变革性行业，机会毋庸置疑，现在行业也才刚刚起步。但我说的百分百风险，是长期维度的风险，不是说当下正在反弹的这些个股马上就会出问题。　　第一财经：所以您的核心逻辑是，要区分科技行业的赛道机会和具体个股的投资机会？　　林园：对的。行业空间确实巨大，但最后真正能跑出来的公司，不一定就是你现在持有的、市场热门的这些标的。就像你说的，有些科技龙头现在业绩看着很好，但它没有真正的壁垒，随时会被新的技术、新的公司替代。

D | 　　第一财经：科技行业整体向好、个股却分化严重，这种撕裂感，主要是估值、股价、基本面的问题，还是其他原因导致的？　　林园：这和估值一点关系都没有，也不是市场讲故事的问题，就是行业本质决定的。

E | 核心就是新旧更替太快，老的企业很容易被淘汰。科技公司特别烧钱，业绩、产能全靠持续砸钱堆出来。一旦市场需求、技术路线变了，之前所有的投入基本就是打水漂，能长久存活、沉淀下来的科技企业非常少。　　不追逐创新药高弹性医药投资优先押注慢病确定性　　第一财经：本轮非科技股反弹冷热不均，其中医药板块修复尤为亮眼。您持仓大多是医药传统标的，而创新药个股的反弹弹性明显更大，您是否会考虑在医药板块内部切换投资风格？　　林园：医药各个细分方向我们都有布局，但核心仓位，还是集中在慢性病赛道。现在的医学手段，对大多数慢性病都有成熟的对症治疗方法。我们重点布局的，是慢性病衍生出来的各类并发症相关领域。对应的药品、保健品，核心作用就是延续患者的生命、维持身体基本机能。很多七八十岁的老人，身体血管、各项机能都老化了，已经没法做手术，只能靠保守治疗维持生命。我们主要投的，就是这类能实实在在延续生命、有确定性价值的标的。　　第一财经：但您不觉得部分创新药股的股价、业绩更有爆发力，投资故事也更有吸引力吗？　　林园：可能是我的固有偏好。医学能治病，但改变不了人的衰老规律，所以我们对创新药一直比较谨慎。

F | 我们选赛道，最看重确定性。

G | 现在大家生活水平提高，肥胖人群越来越多，很多慢性病都是肥胖引发的。所以我们重点关注减重、肥胖相关的赛道，只要体重降下来，很多毛病自然就好转了。　　有色消费以及红利和自由现金流ETF迎来历史性机会　　第一财经：您如何看待有色、消费等传统板块，以及近期资金持续增配的红利ETF、自由现金流ETF这类指数产品？　　林园：我觉得这些都是历史性的机会，估值非常便宜，全都有投资机会。

H | 这些板块算是市场里的难兄难弟，整体逻辑都差不多。

I | 　　市场纠结源于贪念价值投资要平常心看待波动　　第一财经：今年无论是散户还是高净值投资者，整体心态都十分矛盾纠结：有人追逐赛道轮动，有人坚持均衡配置，有人坐等市场高低切换。大家既担忧AI新赛道估值过高，又怕科技股持续走弱、传统板块业绩无法带动指数。您怎么看待当下市场的投资心态？　　林园：说到底就是人的贪性导致的，贪心让人患得患失、想东想西，来回纠结。我们做价值投资，就是抓核心逻辑、稳住心态。真正吃透了价值投资，面对市场波动就平常心看待。就算短期行情不如意、账户有波动，也没什么大不了的，放平心态就好，实在不行就休息、睡觉，不用纠结。

J | 　　第一财经：无论是基金配置还是个股投资，当下行情下，哑铃策略、均衡配置的思路还管用吗？　　林园：这套策略肯定是有用的。但对我、对我们公司来说，投资思路是抓重点、抓核心大事。　　我不追求每一轮行情都赚钱、次次都要高收益。一辈子抓住一次顶级的大机会，就足够了。　　下半年科技价值难共振两大赛道或将维持对立走势　　第一财经：您如何看待下半年市场行情？科技赛道和价值赛道，是否会走出更加均衡的走势？　　林园：看下半年短期行情，科技和价值这两大赛道还是对立走势，不是共振、相辅相成的关系。现在全球市场都是这个格局：科技股短期走的是牛市，传统价值股还处在熊市区间，我们一直重点警惕科技赛道的风险。　　投资立足人性与价值常识坚守常识和基本逻辑才是关键　　第一财经：上半年极端的K型分化行情，是否颠覆了您对科技、价值、风控的固有判断，是否让您对投资逻辑产生新的思考？　　林园：我过往的经验就是，但凡我听市场的各种声音、想着改变自己的固有逻辑，最后基本都是错的，甚至差点出大问题。

K | 投资归根结底就是人性和价值常识，这两样东西不会变。

L | 我也会复盘行情、思考市场变化，但最后结论都一样：核心逻辑不能变、持仓不能乱动。　　港股整体仍然被低估消费医药标的性价比凸显　　第一财经：您如何看待当下港股的估值水平和投资机会？　　林园：港股现在整体还是很便宜的，机会很不错。港股有很多贴近民生、消费的传统企业，现在都值得布局。尤其是港股医药，不少公司估值低、回报率处在历史高位，性价比非常高。港股和A股联动性很强，现在估值也基本持平。现在做港股的资金越来越多，但A股依旧是市场的核心主战场。　　林园投资免责声明：　　本文所载内容仅供专业投资者参考使用。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。