死亡笔记
China activates Level IV emergency response for typhoon, heavy rain as three typhoons simultaneously present at sea near China’s coastal areas_我的网站
A | 全球金融市场即将迎来重大考验。
本周，金融市场将迎来经济数据、财报和地缘局势等一系列重磅事件的扰动。
China Meteorological Administration (CMA) issued a Level IV emergency response for typhoon and heavy rain on Saturday, when typhoons including Gaenari, Narra, and Saudel created a rare situation in which three typhoons were active simultaneously over the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific.
As Typhoon Gaenari, the 20th typhoon of this year, formed on Saturday afternoon, a total of 20 typhoons have formed since January this year, well above the historical average of 13.4 typhoons form from January to August, despite August is not yet over. Statistics also show that typhoons have formed every month from January through August this year, with the number of typhoons generated each month exceeding the average for the same period in previous years, Beijing Daily reported.
Typhoon Gaenari was about 320 kilometers east-northeast of Taipei on China’s Taiwan, as of 2 pm on Saturday, packing maximum winds of 18 meters per second near its center.
Typhoon Gaenari is expected to move rapidly northwestward at a speed of 35 to 40 kilometers per hour, with little change in intensity, China Central Television reported on Saturday.
While the combined influence of Typhoon Narra, the 19th typhoon of this year,and the southwest monsoon is set to bring heavy rain to parts of South China and coastal areas of East China’s Zhejiang and Fujian provinces over the next three days, Typhoon Saudel, this year’s 18th typhoon, is forecast to move northwest and strengthen.
China’s National Meteorological Center maintained a blue typhoon warning on Saturday morning, with Typhoon Narra centered over the Beibu Gulf, about 30 kilometers south of Dongxing city, South China’s Guangxi, China Central Television (CCTV) reported.
Typhoon Narra is forecast to linger over the Beibu Gulf from Saturday afternoon to Sunday night, strengthening to a severe tropical storm before slowly moving northeastward and northward from Monday. It is expected to weaken as it approaches the Leizhou Peninsula in Guangdong and coastal areas of southern Guangxi.
Typhoon Narra and the southwest monsoon are expected to bring heavy to torrential rain to Hainan, southern Guangxi and coastal Guangdong over the next three days, with some areas facing extreme rainfall.
China’s National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and the Ministry of Emergency Management activated a Level IV emergency response for flood and typhoon control in Hainan, Guangxi and Guangdong at 8 pm on Friday.
Meteorological experts warned that Typhoon Narra will follow a complex track and linger over the Beibu Gulf, urging heightened precautions for maritime activities, transportation and coastal tourism. Heavy rain could trigger mudslides, landslides and flooding, while localized severe weather may also cause secondary disasters, chinanews.com reported.
In addition, Sun Qianqian, a meteorological analyst with the CMA, said that sea surface temperatures along Typhoon Saudel’s path are relatively high, and the storm is expected to intensify rapidly in the coming days, potentially reaching super typhoon strength. Around Wednesday, it is expected to pass through the Ryukyu Islands and move into the East China Sea, after which its track remains somewhat uncertain.
According to Sun, an active South China Sea monsoon and multiple interacting tropical systems are expected to bring heavy rain to coastal areas from southern to eastern China through Monday. Southern Guangxi, Hainan, southern Taiwan Island, eastern Guangdong, southern Fujian and southern Shandong are likely to see the heavy rainfall, with risks of rain-related secondary disasters, CCTV reported.
Global Times
。其中，美联储主席凯文·沃什将于8月28日（周五）在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表讲话。
B | 美联储最青睐的通胀指标—7月PCE物价指数将于8月26日（周三）公布，或将直接影响市场对美联储的加息预期。尽管美联储9月加息的紧迫性有所降低，但目前市场仍预期美联储可能会在2026年年底前进行一次加息。 另外，美股财报季也将迎来重头戏，全球“AI总龙头”英伟达将于北京时间8月27日凌晨披露财报，其业绩指引被视为AI资本开支周期的“终极验证”，全球“AI交易”可能会遭遇剧烈波动。 沃什本周将发表重要讲话 根据日程安排，2026年杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月27日至29日在美国怀俄明州举行，会议主题为“金融创新：对支付与政策的影响”。 沃什将于北京时间8月28日晚上10点在年会上发表重要讲话。沃什此前表示，他希望利用这次演讲来界定美联储面临的“重大问题”——包括对通胀目标、生产力、人口结构变化以及全球经济冲击的担忧。 投资者期待沃什阐明美联储未来将如何应对顽固通胀，但目前尚不确定他是否会给出明确表态。迄今为止，沃什一直回避给出任何前瞻性政策指引。 道明证券策略师表示，从理念上，沃什本就不愿给出政策指引，预计沃什不会改变其解读经济前景的表态方式。市场将寻找有关其政策反应函数的线索，同时期待他重申美联储对抗通胀的立场。 彭博经济学家预计，沃什更可能重点讨论其美联储改革的理念框架，强调前瞻指引可能降低政策灵活性，并干扰市场信号。 而在此之前，美国国债市场遭遇猛烈抛售，美国30年期国债收益率一度升至5.337%，创下2007年6月以来新高。
C | 随后，美国财政部紧急宣布，将10年至30年期美债的流动性支持回购操作规模至少提高一倍。 有分析人士指出，近期美债抛售潮的原因之一，是沃什上任后坚决不给货币政策的前瞻指引，甚至还扬言“美债收益率上升已经帮美联储完成部分工作”。 在全球央行年会召开前，美联储“最青睐的通胀指标”美国7月PCE通胀数据将于北京时间8月26日20:30公布，若该数据超出市场预期，市场对9月美联储的加息预期或将再度升温，进而引发美债收益率与全球风险资产联动波动。此外，美国二季度实际GDP修正值也将于当天20:30公布。 财报季的重头戏 美股财报方面，根据日程安排，英伟达将于北京时间8月27日凌晨发布截至7月的季度财报，全球AI资本开支周期将迎来“终极验证”，或将引发市场巨震。 据杰富瑞最新发布的报告，预计英伟达本财季收入将达到950亿美元，高于市场一致预期的约919亿美元；下一财季收入指引有望达到1080亿美元，也高于市场预期的约1037亿美元。 另有分析指出，真正决定英伟达股价弹性的是三个更长期的问题：Rubin能否顺利接棒Blackwell、AI需求是否仍显著大于供给，以及英伟达为锁定未来需求需要承担多大的融资和资产负债表责任。
D | 杰富瑞认为，英伟达Rubin的爬坡速度可能显著快于Blackwell初期。原因在于Rubin延续72-GPU Oberon NVL72机架形态，能够复用GB200、GB300积累下来的液冷数据中心部署和制造基础。 摩根士丹利指出，融资、市场份额和毛利率是投资者当前最关注的三大争议点。
E | 英伟达管理层大概率会强调这些结构有助于加速AI基础设施建设，但投资者需要看到更清晰的会计披露，包括或有义务、租赁和电力支付支持、残值承诺等细节。
F | 另外，中东局势依然是重要且不可控的场外因素。 根据此前预告，美国财长贝森特将于当地时间周一美股盘中（北京时间周二凌晨）举行新闻发布会，披露美国对伊朗实施“前所未有的经济孤立”措施的细节。 目前市场尚不理解美国如何在军事打击都未能奏效的情况下，通过加码经济制裁逼迫伊朗妥协。
G | 伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书雷扎伊8月22日公开表示，任何参与对伊朗实施经济限制的国家，都被伊朗视为敌人。同时，美国在霍尔木兹海峡南部航道的任何行动都将成为伊朗的打击目标，且伊方将打击美国与该地区任何反伊朗势力举行的会晤。 Rystad能源石油市场分析副总裁亚尼夫·沙阿表示：“外交斡旋看不到明显进展，全球能源市场再度计入外交谈判失败的风险。”
（文章来源：券商中国）。
Current article:http://www.jiubengtaibingpengou.pics/brxrud/56a.doc
Published on:00:11:17