A | 8月25日早盘，两市震荡调整，猪肉概念逆势拉升，截至早间收盘，板块上涨1.71%，涨幅居概念板块前列。个股方面，金字火腿涨近6%，ST龙大涨超5%，西部牧业、大禹生物涨超4%，神农集团涨超3%，顺鑫农业、唐人神、温氏股份、克明食品、得利斯、新五丰、牧原股份、大北农等多股涨超2%。 Christmas is finally here, and Bollywood celebrities are celebrating the festive season with warmth, joy, and big smile. They welcomed Christmas in their own special ways, giving fans a peek into their festive celebrations through social media. Whether it was decorating trees, relaxing with loved ones, or sharing cheerful wishes, the stars truly soaked in the holiday spirit. Kareena Kapoor Khan, who comes from the Pataudi family, shared a charming glimpse of her Christmas décor. She posted a picture of a slate hanging on a beautifully decorated Christmas tree. The slate read, “Christmas at the Pataudi’s”, and featured a cute Santa Claus illustration, perfectly capturing the festive mood. See here: Tamannaah Bhatia kept things cosy and fun at home. She was seen decorating her Christmas tree while dressed in a comfortable red pajama set. Adding a playful touch, her post also featured a gingerbread man wearing her earrings. She captioned the post, “Ho ho ho Merry Christmas.” Check it out here: View this post on Instagram A post shared by Tamannaah Bhatia (@tamannaahspeaks) Khushi Kapoor celebrated Christmas with her close friends, including Vedang Raina. The group chose a relaxed and cosy vibe, wearing colour-coordinated red and white pajamas. They clicked pictures while enjoying cookies and spending quality time together. Khushi shared a series of pictures from their warm holiday setup. View this post on Instagram A post shared by ᴋʜᴜsʜɪ ᴋᴀᴘᴏᴏʀ (@khushikapoor) Ananya Panday and Kartik Aaryan, who are busy promoting their film Tu Meri Main Tera Main Tera Tu Meri, which released today, also took a moment to wish fans. The duo shared adorable festive pictures and spread Christmas cheer online. See the pictures here: View this post on Instagram A post shared by KARTIK AARYAN (@kartikaaryan) Shilpa Shetty spent her Christmas holidays outdoors with her family. She shared pictures and videos from the celebrations, including a sweet moment where she was seen enjoying a merry-go-round ride with her son. View this post on Instagram A post shared by Shilpa Shetty Kundra (@theshilpashetty) Sonakshi Sinha and Zaheer Iqbal, one of Bollywood’s most loved couples, posed together beside a Christmas tree. Sharing the moment, Sonakshi captioned the post, “Wish you a holy jolly Christmas.” View this post on Instagram A post shared by Sonakshi Sinha (@aslisona) Sidharth Malhotra wished his fans with a simple yet warm Christmas video, captioned “Merry Christmas.” Sara Ali Khan celebrated the festival quietly with a few close friends, keeping things low-key. Madhuri Dixit Nene also shared a heartfelt Christmas wish for her fans, while Riteish Deshmukh and Genelia D’Souza posted festive greetings, adding to the holiday cheer. Also Read: Allu Arjun, Anushka Sharma & more wish fans a Merry Christmas。
B | 
短期供给压力有所缓解 消息方面，生猪价格近期已有所反弹。据博亚和讯数据，8月中旬全国外三元生猪均价从10.30元/公斤最高冲到11.27元/公斤，走出一轮8连涨；最近23个交易日小幅回调，但仍维持在11.11元的近期高位。
C | 
供应端是支撑当前猪价反弹的核心驱动力。
D | 前期能繁母猪存栏量持续去化的传导效应，正逐步在商品猪出栏端显现。截至2026年二季度末，全国能繁母猪存栏量已降至3780万头，距离3750万头的国家合理保有量目标仅一步之遥。
与此同时，生猪出栏体重呈现结构性下降。受夏季高温天气影响，生猪的日增重速度放缓，增重成本显著高于春秋季节。
E | 行业已连续三个季度处于深度亏损状态，养殖端资金压力大幅增加，普遍放弃压栏增重，转而选择降重出栏以减少亏损。此外，政策端对二次育肥的严格管控使得大猪供应明显收缩、标肥价差收窄，有效缓解了短期供给压力。 产能去化有望加速 需求端方面，华龙期货指出，立秋后天气转凉，开学季备货和双节预期带动屠宰开工率低位回升，冻品库存周环比延续下滑。
F | 不过当前需求增量尚不足以驱动趋势性反转，短期猪价在标肥价差和压栏情绪支撑下仍具韧性，但8月下旬出栏压力释放和二育出栏窗口临近将限制上方空间。
G | 方正证券认为，从周期角度看，（生猪）产能去化有望进一步加速，拐点仍需等待。养殖端自繁自养亏损幅度明显扩大，行业现金流持续承压，能繁母猪产能去化稳步推进。股价角度，悲观预期已较充分，板块具备安全边际。养殖板块经历前期调整，当前估值处于历史低位。 A股方面，自6月25日创下年内低点至今，申万生猪养殖板块已累计反弹超16%，11只成分股中10只上涨，仅京基智农1股下跌。上涨成分股中，神农集团涨幅最大，超28%；牧原股份次之，涨超22%；温氏股份、新五丰、东瑞股份、巨星农牧、天邦食品等6股均涨超10%。
（文章来源：东方财富研究中心）。
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