新宿天鹅
PLA Southern Theater Command tracks, monitors and warns 3 Philippine aircraft after their illegal entry into Huangyan Dao airspace_我的网站
A | 王星事件的相关讨论，还在持续。谭主对这一事件进行回溯和复盘后发现，这件事的发酵主要经历了三个阶段。
On Friday, three small Philippine aircraft - an Islander, a C-208, and a PA-31T - illegally intruded into China's territorial airspace over Huangyan Dao without approval from the Chinese government. The naval and air forces dispatched by the PLA Southern Theater Command (STC) tracked and monitored the Philippine aircraft, and issued verbal warnings to them in accordance with laws and regulations, senior Colonel Li Jianjian, spokesperson for the PLA STC Air Force, said in a statement on Friday.
The acts of the Philippine side seriously violate China's sovereignty, and are highly likely to cause misunderstanding and miscalculation. "We sternly warn the Philippine side to stop rights-violation and provocative acts immediately. Forces of the STC remain on high alert at all times to firmly safeguard national sovereignty and security as well as regional peace and stability," said the spokesperson.
Ding Duo, director of the Research Center for International and Regional Issues at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, called the Philippines' latest move another "stunt."
The Philippines previously submitted its so-called "territorial sea baselines" around Huangyan Dao, so it is not unexpected that Manila would follow up with actions at sea or in the air to stir up tensions, keep the issue in the spotlight and stage further provocations, said Ding.
At present, the Philippines can barely gain access to the relevant waters and has secured no tangible advantage there. Aircraft, however, can enter and leave the area quickly. Such operations not only provide material for media hype but also generate footage of China's response, allowing Manila to project resolve and reassure its military and law-enforcement forces at home, Ding told the Global Times.
In late July, the Philippines notified the United Nations of the so-called "baselines and maritime zones" surrounding Huangyan Dao. On July 31, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the Philippines' delimitation of the so-called "baselines of the territorial sea" around Huangyan Dao, calling the move "a grave infringement upon China's territorial sovereignty and a serious violation of international law."
"It is illegal, null and void. China firmly rejects and will never accept it," the statement said.
Meanwhile, Manila appears emboldened by growing security and defense cooperation with the US and Japan. Backed by these external partners, the Philippines has shown greater willingness to stage provocations, while its military and law-enforcement forces have displayed increasingly risk-prone and opportunistic behavior, said Ding.
China has exercised considerable restraint over the Huangyan Dao, but the Philippines should not mistake that restraint for weakness. If China were to employ the full range of available measures, Philippine aircraft would likewise be denied access to the area, said Ding.
By dispatching small aircraft for deliberate provocations, the Philippines is further increasing the risk of miscalculation. Such aerial incursions are highly unpredictable and carry serious escalation risks. If China responds with resolute or more forceful measures to defend its rights and an unintended incident occurs as a result, the Philippines should bear full responsibility for the consequences, the expert warned.
。从图上可以看到，第一个阶段，舆论场的讨论主要围绕“救援”展开——1月5日深夜，王星女友通过社交平台求助，此后几天，网友都在接力转发。1月8日之后，舆论场开始出现大量“内部曝光”的帖文，称找到了王星事件的“幕后老板”——“金老虎”。这个人，被形容为是“来自缅甸最大的劳务中介”。与此同时，泰国警方也初步确认王星是人口贩卖受害者。10日，舆论场集中出现的热门关键词为“妙瓦底”，并且被定义为了一个新的“诈骗聚集地”。总结起来，从舆论讨论的趋势来看，重点已经由对王星个体的关注，变成了对整个妙瓦底以及电诈的关注，由此也衍生了一系列的疑惑：电诈为何屡禁不止？这样的疑问有一个重要背景是，一直以来，“电诈”都集中在缅北地区。而妙瓦底，位于缅甸东南部。实际上，早在2021年，西南政法大学的谢玲教授就指出，“电诈”的窝点是动态变化的，诈骗团伙会选择更适合窝点发展和成本低的地方迁移。而妙瓦底，正是诈骗团队的迁移目的地之一。
B | 谢玲给谭主总结了妙瓦底的几个特点：首先是妙瓦底的地理位置，妙瓦底是缅甸与泰国交界的边境城市。
C | 妙瓦底的公路连接泰国曼谷和缅甸仰光，其水路，则是泰国到缅甸最便捷的水上运输通道。也就是说，妙瓦底很适合藏匿，也适合偷渡，这也意味着，它适合诈骗团伙的人员发展。其次，妙瓦底的赌博业发达，实体赌场很多，这也会为电诈集团洗钱提供更多的渠道。还有一个原因，是妙瓦底的生活成本低。西南政法大学教授谢玲：在妙瓦底北部的别墅区中，300多平米的办公楼月租在15-25万人民币左右，比缅北办公用房月租约低5-10万元人民币，同时，妙瓦底的外勤人力成本也处在缅甸的最低水平线以下，这样的犯罪成本支出，完全在诈骗团伙的承受范围之内。
D | 诈骗团伙的逃窜与隐匿，也与公安部门的严厉打击有关系。1月初，公安部通报称，自2023年7月部署开展打击缅北涉我电信网络诈骗犯罪专项工作以来，公安部依托中缅执法安全合作机制，指挥云南、浙江等多地公安机关联合作战。
E | 目前，缅北果敢地区规模化电诈园区被全部铲除。其他的一些电诈团队，只能往腹地逃窜——妙瓦底。
F | 在看到中缅联合执法行动后，谭主也注意到，舆论场现在也出现一种声音：我们为什么不在妙瓦底执法？中国人民公安大学侦查学院副教授王晓伟：中国警方在境外没有执法权，联合执法需要通过国际警务合作的渠道来开展。
G | 而开展联合执法的前提，是中方已经对诈骗案件进行了研判和侦查，在掌握了一定信息后，再将这些信息提供给诈骗窝点所在国警方，发出联合打击的请求。
H | 其次是，在掌握相关信息后，联合执法也需要走一定流程。就拿中缅对缅北的行动来说，先是外交部和我驻缅大使馆积极做工作，在这之后，公安部派出工作组赴缅甸开展国际警务执法合作。公安部工作组与缅方进行了多轮会谈磋商，就联合打击电信网络诈骗犯罪等事项达成一致。随后，中缅双方连续开展多轮打击行动，临近我边境的缅北地区规模化电诈园区才被全部铲除。谭主了解到，目前，中方正在开展调查。在掌握了足够的信息后，接下来，就是行动。
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Published on:09:40:57